Terra Vita

The Missing Chain

A Terra Vita Reconstruction Failure Simulation
L0 · Institutional simulation
Deliberation clock --:--

Will the evidence survive reconstruction?

Your task

Issue a defensible IC decision when the evidence chain breaks.

You sit on the Investment Committee. A project claims strong ecosystem performance — but the logs are incomplete, timestamps drift, and several records cannot be independently rebuilt. Some numbers look solid — until you ask whether the chain can be reconstructed.

Decide what survives, what must be validated, and what cannot be taken to the IC at all.

This is a simulation.· No real data.· No sustainability knowledge required — this is about institutional risk.
Mandate

You are serving on the Investment Committee for a programme that allocates capital into ecosystem-linked performance. Your responsibility is to determine whether the evidence presented can survive reconstruction and therefore be taken forward as part of a defensible IC decision.

Your mandate is not to judge the quality of the project, the credibility of the actors, or the desirability of the outcomes. It is to determine what survives reconstruction, what requires validation, and what cannot be used.

If the chain cannot be rebuilt, the claim cannot be taken to the IC — regardless of how strong the indicator appears. Your decision must be defensible under audit.

The reconstruction problem

Three structural failure modes determine whether evidence can be rebuilt.

01 / Breakpoints

Missing segments

A gap in the chain

If a segment of the chain is gone, the claim dies with it. A number without its upstream record is not evidence — it is an orphan.

Question: What part of the chain is missing, and can it be independently restored?
02 / Drift

Timestamp & sequence

Logs that disagree

When logs drift, the chain becomes non-deterministic. If two systems disagree on order, the reconstruction collapses.

Question: Which sequence can be trusted — and why?
03 / Fragility

Single-point dependency

One copy, one actor

If one actor controls the only copy of a record, the chain is fragile. Fragile chains do not survive audit.

Question: Is there an independent record that can rebuild the chain?
Facilitator note

Run solo or as a committee that votes. Set up the session, read the mandate (3 min), classify the evidence pack (10 min), debate & vote (10–15 min, optionally on the clock), then trigger the Audit Reveal. ~20–40 min. No sustainability knowledge required — this is about institutional risk.

Built on the Terra Vita evidence discipline: attribution · reconstruction · governance.

Comparison board
Use this to classify each evidence item before deliberation.
S·0 · Session setup

Convene the committee

Choose how the room decides, set the clock, then open the reconstruction file.

1
Read the mandate · 3 min
Understand your responsibility and the decision boundary.
2
Review the evidence pack · 10 min
Classify each record using the comparison board.
3
Debate & vote · 10–15 min
Optionally run on the clock.
4
Trigger the Audit Reveal
Compare your decision to what survives reconstruction.
Decision mode
Solo committee
You are the chair and the room. One verdict, on the record.
Committee vote
Members vote per resolution. Majority carries · chair breaks ties.
Deliberation clock
Off
10 min
15 min
20 min

A visible countdown runs through the evidence & decision phases — decisions under time pressure.

The file on the table
Programme — ecosystem-linked performance allocation
A 10-record evidence pack (E1–E10): sensor uplinks, lab reports, satellite tiles, server logs, dashboard aggregates and self-reports — with custody gaps, timestamp drift and single-point dependencies. Open the file and classify what survives reconstruction.
S·II · Evidence pack

Classify all 10 records

0 / 10 classified
▣ SURVIVES — complete chain, independent copy ◈ VALIDATE — partial chain / drift / custody gap; needs independent validation ✕ CANNOT USE — chain cannot be rebuilt; never to the IC
R · The resolution

Issue the committee's decision

One decision, on the record. The audit will test it against what the evidence can actually support after reconstruction.

Resolution A

Approve

Finance as presented, at the proposed pricing and risk rating. The performance claims are taken at face value.

Resolution B

Approve with conditions

Finance contingent on reconstruction and independent validation of named records before drawdown; orphaned claims excluded from the case.

Resolution C

Defer

Send back. No financeable case until the broken chains are rebuilt and the file is re-presented.

Resolution D

Reject

Decline. The reconstruction risk is not financeable on any reasonable terms.

A · Audit reveal

The chain, tested under reconstruction

0
/ 10 correctly classified
Reconstruction accuracy

Record-by-record findings

The debrief question that turns the game into governance training. Captured in the minutes.

F · Facilitator comparison board

Breakout groups, side by side

The teaching moment is the spread: the same broken chain, different calls, different audit fates. Add this device's group, or paste a group code exported from another room.

No groups recorded yet. Run an audit and press “Add this group to the board”.
The audit reveal is the only score that matters.